Remote Surveillance Trailer in Winters, CA

Climate troublemaker El Niño can cause heat waves, droughts and flooding around the world. There are signs the next El Niño could fuel global heat records.

Californians may want to start paying attention now.

One of the world’s most powerful climate drivers — El Niño — is taking shape in the Pacific, and scientists say early signs point to a potentially strong event later in 2026 that could influence California’s weather, wildfire risk and water outlook well into next year.

"The El Niño cometh," said climate scientist Zeke Hausfather on X recently.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said March 12 that an El Niño is forecast to develop along the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean later this year, with a growing chance it will strengthen and persist through at least the end of 2026.

El Niño is known for its outsized influence on global weather, often shaping California’s winters, storm patterns and temperatures more than any other natural climate cycle. While summer impacts tend to be limited, what happens offshore now can set the stage for how wet, warm — or volatile — California’s next few winters may be.

The developing El Niño could also affect hurricane activity in both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and contribute to extreme heat, drought and flooding worldwide. Past El Niño events have coincided with some of the hottest years on record, including 2024.

If El Niño develops as expected, Hausfather said it would likely push global temperatures higher in 2026 and make 2027 a strong contender for the warmest year ever recorded.

What's the forecast?

The current La Niña climate pattern is fading and will eventually be replaced by a strong El Niño, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

The likelihood of an El Niño forming in the late summer is currently estimated by the CPC at 62%. It's expected to "persist through at least the end of 2026," the prediction center said in the March 12 report, which officially declared an "El Niño watch."

"Even though model forecasts are relatively less accurate this time of year, the increasing odds of El Niño are supported by the large amount of heat in the subsurface ocean and the expected weakening of the low-level trade winds," the report said.

"If El Niño forms, the potential strength remains very uncertain, with a 1-in-3 chance that it would be 'strong' during October-December 2026," the prediction center said in the report.

What El Niño means for California

For California, El Niño matters most in winter.

During El Niño winters, the southern tier of the United States — including much of California — typically sees wetter-than-average conditions, while the northern U.S. trends drier, according to NOAA.

Historically, stronger El Niño events have been associated with an increased risk of heavy rain, flooding and landslides in parts of Southern and Central California, especially following dry years when soils struggle to absorb intense rainfall.

Temperatures also tend to skew warmer overall. “El Niño winters are typically warmer across the continental U.S.,” NOAA hurricane forecaster Matthew Rosencrans said, with warmth often extending down the West Coast — though local impacts can vary widely.

For Californians, the implications could stretch beyond rain:

It’s still too early to forecast how California’s winter of 2026–27 will play out, but climate experts say the developing Pacific pattern is one state officials and residents will be watching closely over the coming months.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which surface sea water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average.

Its name means the Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish. El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas.

The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region.

Could it be a 'Super' El Niño? Or a 'Godzilla' El Niño?

Although they're not official terms, some excited scientists and headline writers have dubbed the potentially strong El Niño a "Super" or "Godzilla" El Niño.

Experts at the Climate Prediction Center do not use these terms. As noted above, government scientists say there's a one-in-three chance of the El Niño reaching strong levels.

One other expert, though, said a strong one could be on the way: “Whew," said climate scientist Daniel Swain recently in an X post after reviewing the latest model data. “All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event.”

Why do we care about El Niño?

The ENSO cycle is the primary factor government scientists consider when announcing their winter weather forecast because it mainly influences our weather in the colder months. El Niño doesn’t have a strong summer climate impact for most of the country, NOAA said.

During an El Niño winter, the southern third of the United States typically experiences wetter-than-average conditions, while the northern third sees enhanced chances of below-normal precipitation, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

As for temperatures, "El Niño winters are typically warmer across the continental U.S., especially from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes," Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane seasonal forecaster, said in an e-mail to USA TODAY. "The warmth can extend farther down the West Coast and into the Southeast, but those signals are much less certain."

How does El Niño influence hurricanes?

El Niño can significantly affect hurricane season severity in both the Atlantic and the Pacific.

"Typically, El Niño leads to more rising air over the tropical Pacific, which then leads to stronger upper-level wind shear and sinking air across the tropical Atlantic," said associate scientist Andy Hazelton of the University of Miami in an email to USA TODAY. "This usually reduces the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, especially in the Caribbean and Gulf."

However, he said we've seen El Niño years where the Atlantic was very warm, and that offset some of the El Niño effects − such as during 2023, he added.

Conversely, "El Niño years are typically associated with more activity in the eastern Pacific," said Rosencrans.

Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, with a focus on weather and climate.

February storms brought fresh snow to the Sierra Nevada, but California’s snowpack remains far smaller than average during a winter that has brought record warmth across much of the West.

California water officials said Friday that the Sierra snowpack is at 66% of average for this time of year.

“We’re ahead of where we were last month, but still way behind where we would hope to be,” said Andy Reising, manager of snow surveys for the California Department of Water Resources.

Reising wore skis as he and other officials measured snow in a slushy meadow at Phillips Station near South Lake Tahoe, where rains in the last week began to melt the snow.

“I fell into a stream this morning because of the water that’s flowing under the snowpack,” he said.

California relies on the Sierra snowpack for about 30% of its water.

But extreme warmth across the West this winter has meant more precipitation falling as rain, not snow — a symptom of global warming, which in recent years has been pushing average snow lines higher in the mountains and changing the timing of runoff.

There are 130 monitoring stations across the Sierra Nevada mountains that provide electronic readings. The northern Sierra is currently at 46% of average and the southern Sierra 90% of average.

California’s snow season typically peaks around April 1.

Although much of it hasn’t fallen as snow, California has seen above-average precipitation this winter. According to the website, no part of California is currently experiencing drought conditions.

But across 11 western states, 45% of the region is in at least a moderate drought, and large portions of the Colorado River watershed are in severe drought.

The snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin stands at 66% of average. That will mean less snowmelt feeding the river’s reservoirs, which are .

The western state with the most severe is Oregon. Its snowpack measures just 34% of average for this time of year, the second-worst since 1981.

Temperatures from November through January were the warmest on record. “That’s really the big story about why our snowpack is so meager,” said Larry O’Neill, the Oregon state climatologist and an associate professor at Oregon State University.

“Projections show that our winters are going to look a lot more like this in the future,” O’Neill said. “So this is really a test of our resiliency, of our water supply.”