BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KBAK/KBFX) — A strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean could have an impact on California's weather this fall and winter, with forecasters saying the event has the potential to reach historic levels.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center says there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the fall and winter of 2026-27. There is also a 69% chance the event reaches a historic threshold between October and December, potentially exceeding the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.
But even if El Niño reaches that historic mark, forecasters caution that it does not guarantee a historically wet winter in California
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate pattern associated with warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. Those warmer waters can influence the atmosphere and change weather patterns across the globe.
“El Niño in a nutshell is a warm-up of the Equatorial Pacific across the eastern ocean, from South America, west to south of Hawaii,” said KBAK/KBFX Chief Meteorologist Ilya Neyman.
Neyman said the impact on North America can vary depending on the strength of the event. During the fall, winter and spring, El Niño can change the path of storm systems and influence the jet stream, potentially bringing more stormy and wet weather to the southern portion of the United States, including California.
This year's El Niño is already strengthening, and the Climate Prediction Center says the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continues to show signs of a strengthening event.
How strong could this El Niño become?
Brian Ochs, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Hanford, said forecasters look at sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific when assessing the strength of an El Niño.
Ochs pointed to two of the strongest previous events in the historical record.
“I think the couple of events that were the highest were 1982 to 1983, where the index went as high as 2.4 degrees. And I believe 1997 to 1998, that went to 2.3 degrees Celsius.”
This year, forecasters are watching for the possibility of reaching an even higher threshold.
“So the 69% chance is basically looking at reaching 2.5 degrees Celsius, which would be the record highest since 1950,” Ochs said.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, sea surface temperature anomalies have already exceeded 2 degrees Celsius in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. Significant warming is also occurring below the ocean's surface, while atmospheric conditions are showing signs consistent with the developing El Niño.
The agency expects El Niño to continue strengthening through the end of the year.
What could it mean for California and Kern County?
For many Californians, the big question is whether a stronger El Niño means more rain.
Ochs said current outlooks favor above-average precipitation across much of Southern California, extending north into Kern County.
“The odds are tilted that we will receive at least some precipitation — at least some above average precipitation — for this fall through into the winter as well as into the spring,” Ochs said.
Ochs said the outlook currently shows about a 40% chance of above-average precipitation during portions of the fall and winter outlook for the region.
But a strong or even historic El Niño does not guarantee an unusually wet winter.
“It doesn't mean it's guaranteed, but usually it's, or at least more likely, we'll see at least some above-average precipitation,” Ochs said.
History shows why there is still uncertainty.
Neyman looked back at three previous very strong El Niño events — 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 — and how they affected rainfall in California and the Central and South Valley.
He said the 1982-83 event brought the South Valley about 191% of its average rainfall, while 1997-98 brought about 183% of average.
The 2015-16 event played out differently. Neyman said Southern California received less than three-quarters of its typical rainfall, although the Central and South Valley reached above 100% of average.
“The last three very strong events have led to at least normal, quote unquote, if not above normal rainfall,” Neyman said.
That history gives forecasters some indication of what could happen this time around, but it is far from a guarantee.
“So it does seem like the odds are in our favor in terms of having at least an average, if not a significantly above average rainfall year,” Neyman said. “But, of course, we really don't know. We just have to watch it play by play day by day.”
What impacts could Kern County see?
If storms begin lining up this winter and tap into deep Pacific moisture, Neyman said there are several potential impacts he will be watching closely in Kern County.
“There could be flooding, flash flooding, which we know our area is certainly susceptible to,” Neyman said. “There could be snowfall impacts in the mountains, if enough cold air comes in with some of these events.”
Neyman also said some storms associated with an active pattern could contain significant energy, making severe weather another factor meteorologists will watch.
The greatest influence from El Niño typically occurs during the winter, although impacts can begin during the fall and continue into spring.
“That's where we expect our greatest impact across North America, typically in the winter, about December, January, February, sitting into the spring, and maybe lasting even into those late spring months, potentially starting in the autumn,” Neyman said.
What happens next?
While there is already high confidence that El Niño will continue strengthening, exactly how the pattern translates into California's weather will become clearer as fall and winter approach.
Ochs said forecasters should have a better handle on potential impacts as the region gets closer to the fall months.
“We probably have a little bit better handle on themes and means. Since we are still about, we're still in August now, usually you get closer to the certainty will increase more, but it's the certainty's already pretty high as we're looking now,” Ochs said.
For now, Neyman says the developing event is something people should continue watching as the seasons change.
“Track it, watch it, stay tuned to the latest details, the data, and the forecasts,” Neyman said. “They're all speculative. Nobody really knows what's gonna happen, but we're just watching it and kind of trying to monitor what's happening, what it could mean, and it could mean business.”
The Climate Prediction Center's next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled for Sept. 10.
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